Alibaba Stock Forecast 2024, 2025 & 2030: Can the Chinese E-Commerce Giant Rebound?

Alibaba (BABA), the Chinese e-commerce and cloud computing giant, has endured a pretty grueling five years in which its stock price has halved.

The company has been punished for what analysts see as sluggish progress, as well as the fierce competition from industry rivals.

But are brighter days ahead? Can Alibaba enjoy a turnaround in fortunes and reward its loyal investors with a long-overdue stock price increase?

Our Alibaba stock forecast for 2024, 2025, and beyond examines recent results, highlights the latest Alibaba news, and reveals what analysts believe will happen to the BABA stock price.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest Alibaba Stock Predictions
3. Alibaba Stock Analysis: How Has It Performed Lately?
4. The Latest Alibaba News & Key Drivers to Consider
5. Alibaba Stock Forecast: Analyst Views
6. Alibaba Stock Predictions: Where Does BABA Stock Price Go Next?
7. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in BABA?
8. FAQs
9. References

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest Alibaba Stock Predictions
3. Alibaba Stock Analysis: How Has It Performed Lately?
Show Full Guide
4. The Latest Alibaba News & Key Drivers to Consider
5. Alibaba Stock Forecast: Analyst Views
6. Alibaba Stock Predictions: Where Does BABA Stock Price Go Next?
7. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in BABA?
8. FAQs
9. References

Summary of the Latest Alibaba Stock Predictions

Alibaba Stock Analysis: How Has It Performed Lately?

Our Alibaba stock forecast kicks off with a look at how BABA stock has performed, but it doesn’t make great reading for investors.

The past year has been very tough for the Alibaba stock price, which has fallen 7.6% from $85.86 to $79.30, as the stock market closed on June 10, 2024.

Such dismal performances have been endured for a long time. In fact, the stock price has lost 50% over the last five years.

Its current level is a world away from the all-time high stock closing price of $312.87 that was achieved on October 27, 2020, according to MacroTrends.

The Latest Alibaba News & Key Drivers to Consider

A crucial part of any Alibaba stock forecast is looking at the most recent results and news coming out of the business.

Quarterly Results

The first factor to consider is the financial figures. The company announced a mixed bag of results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2024.

Quarterly revenue was RMB221.8 billion ($30.7 billion), an increase of 7% year-over-year, but income from operations fell 3% year-over-year to RMB14.7 billion ($2 billion).

Adjusted EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization) was down 5% year to RMB23.9 billion ($3.3 billion) primarily due to increased investments in its e-commerce business and retention incentives granted to Cainiao employees.

As far as the fiscal year was concerned, revenue increased 8% year-over-year to RMB941.1 billion ($130.3 billion).

Net income, meanwhile, was RMB71.3 billion ($9.8 billion). This was an increase of 9% year-over-year, mainly attributable to the increase in income from operations.

In a statement, Alibaba chief executive Eddie Wu said the quarter’s results demonstrated that its “strategies are working” and that the business is returning to growth.

“Our China and international commerce businesses realized double-digit year-over-year GMV growth through our focus on the customer experience,” he wrote. “We are also excited by the accelerated growth of customers and cloud computing revenues related to our AI products.”

Toby Xu, the group’s chief financial officer, added that the business remained committed to returning value to shareholders.

“During fiscal year 2024, we repurchased US$12.5 billion of shares and our board of directors has approved a US$4 billion dividend for fiscal year 2024,” he said.

The Vital Role of AI

Artificial intelligence is too important of an area to take just one path, Alibaba chairman Joe Tsai told during the 2024 JP Morgan Global China Summit in Shanghai.

“We’re the only company (in China) that both runs a leading cloud business and is competitive in AI. The combination of AI and cloud is important.”

In a 30-minute conversation, Tsai insisted the company saw “so much upside to AI” and predicted it was a trend that would continue.

“Fundamentally as a technology company and as a pioneer in technology, we believe in the continuous advancement of machine intelligence and that machines will get smarter and smarter,” he said.

However, he also believes it’s important to apply AI in numerous vertical applications, while anyone using the company’s AI will need cloud computing power.

“Alibaba is about growth. We’re about technology innovation. We’re about applying our technology into our core business to create value for our customers and eventually also for our shareholders,” he added. “You have to have a growth mindset when you compete and that’s where we are.”

Letter to Shareholders

In a recent letter to shareholders, chairman Joe Tsai and chief executive Eddie Wu laid out their vision for the company’s future.

“Over the next decade, no industry will be spared the disruption brought about by AI,” they wrote. “Rather than protecting the old way of doing things, AI has re-ignited our start-up passion and imagination.”

They also reaffirmed plans to continue investing for the future despite recently returning cash to shareholders.

The company will invest in two areas: accelerating the growth of its core businesses and maintaining leadership in fundamental technologies and innovation, including AI.

“In the past 25 years, Alibaba has grown consistently but, unfortunately, acquired ‘large company’ characteristics,” they added.

“For the next ten years, we see ourselves again as a start-up defined by entrepreneurship, innovation, and our mission to make it easy to do business anywhere.”

Raising $5 Billion for Buybacks

In late May 2024, the company announced it was raising $5 billion by issuing convertible bonds in a complicated financing deal.

It said the primary aim would be to buy back shares at a price equal to $80.80 and help fund further share repurchases “from time to time.”

However, reports suggested the move had perplexed some investors who were concerned that the cash on the balance sheet may not be easily accessible.

Alibaba Stock Forecast: Analyst Views

So, what are the Alibaba stock predictions of analysts? Are they optimistic about the company’s prospects or do they believe the price has currently reached a ceiling?

According to Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, the fourth quarter update showed “green shoots of improvement,” but overall progress is sluggish.

He told Techopedia:

“There’s a less-than-ideal economic climate and stiff competition for the group to contend with.”

While the international e-commerce business is doing well, he pointed out, the much larger Chinese division grew at a single-digit rate and the cloud business nearly stalled.

“That’s a far cry from the likes of Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services that this division is trying to emulate,” he explained. “The valuation does reflect some of the current issues, but to drive a re-rating, the company needs to refocus.”

Although Nathan believes it has the financial firepower to invest as required, he sees some concerns. “There’s lots of execution risk here, and for now, the Chinese retail platform dominates. Here, the immediate future looks rather challenging.”

Meanwhile, Chelsey Tam, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, has recently increased the Alibaba price target by 2% to $96.

While Alibaba is fairly valued currently, she believes the valuation can be driven higher if there is a meaningful improvement in discretionary spending and a consumption upgrade.

Tam wrote in her most recent Alibaba stock forecast:

“Then Alibaba can prove its ability to consistently maintain and regain market share for Taobao and Tmall Group, while maintaining growth in earnings and expediting capital return to shareholders.”

Tam also pointed out that Alibaba’s year-on-year GMV (gross merchandise volume) was in line with the 11.6% growth for China’s online sales of goods in the quarter under the new management.

“Management said April and May GMV continue to grow healthily, with consumers starting to reflect a willingness to spend,” she stated. “In particular, some discretionary spending on apparels and electronics are witnessing better growth.”

In addition, she supports management’s assertion that Alibaba Cloud’s revenue, excluding internal customers, will return to double-digit growth in the second half of fiscal 2025.

“The impact of phasing out low-margin project-based cloud businesses will cease to weigh on cloud revenue growth in the next two quarters,” she added.

Alibaba Stock Predictions: Where Does BABA Stock Price Go Next?

So, is BABA a buy, hold, or sell? Alibaba is rated a ‘moderate buy,’ according to the Alibaba stock price forecasts of 16 analysts compiled by MarketBeat. Thirteen have it as a ‘buy’ and three as a ‘hold.’

Their consensus Alibaba stock forecast 2025 sees the price rising 37.17% over the next 12 months to $108.79, from its closing price of $79.31 on June 10, 2024.

While some forecast a relatively modest uptick to $85 over this period, the most optimistic believe the BABA stock price could reach $135.

The following table shows the latest analysts’ Alibaba stock predictions.

TipRanks has a similarly upbeat Alibaba stock forecast for the next 12 months. Based on the views of 17 analysts, it has the stock rated as a ‘strong buy,’ with a consensus potential upside of 30.77% over the coming year.

This would put the BABA stock price at $103.70.

Meanwhile, the one-year algorithmic forecast of Wallet Investor has the Alibaba stock price slipping to $66.80.

There’s even worse news when it comes to five-year predictions, with the website suggesting the stock price could be languishing at $21.41.

However, prospects for the longer term are more encouraging as the Alibaba stock forecast 2030 from Coincodex has the stock price at $105.64.

However, it’s worth noting that analysts’ and algorithm-based projections might prove to be wrong.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in BABA?

Does the current Alibaba share price forecast represent an attractive entry point, or will the e-commerce giant continue to endure falls?

That’s the question facing prospective investors in BABA stock and it’s not an easy one to answer given the economic backdrop and tough industry competition.

While the consensus view of Wall Street analysts is that the stock could enjoy a potential upside of 30% over the coming year, the company is involved in a fast-moving sector.

A lot will depend on the coming year and whether Alibaba is successful in growing its international business and Chinese operations. The management team has pledged to approach the next decade as a start-up with a focus on innovation and entrepreneurship. If it’s successful, investors may benefit.

FAQs