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The failed assassination attempt on pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s life has the crypto community reevaluating his importance to the future of the crypto industry.
As we come to terms with the shocking incident that occurred at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, we speak to experts about Trump’s importance to the crypto industry and what could happen if he becomes the 47th president of the United States.
In this article, Techopedia’s expert panel discusses everything from the US Securities and Exchange Commission‘s (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler’s future to Trump’s anti-central bank digital currency (CBDC) campaign.
Key Takeaways
- Polls suggest a return to the White House for former president Trump after the assassination attempt on his life.
- Experts consider the crypto landscape under Donald Trump based on his recent crypto remarks.
- Anndy Lian says Donald Trump’s influence on the future of cryptocurrency is significant.
- Shiven Moodley says Gary Gensler will be replaced by a pro-crypto candidate if Trump wins.
- Jacob Martin says a Republican win will see crypto rally alongside stocks.
- Vijay Pravin says halting CBDCs could “undermine America’s dominance”
- Trump confirms he will deliver a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference event in July.
How important is Donald Trump to the Future of Crypto?
Over the weekend, absurd new Trump-based memecoins surfaced, and crypto prices traded in the green as the market breathed a sigh of relief after government officials reassured the public that the former President was safe.
Appears he’s ok; pumping his first here. My lord, this is crazy pic.twitter.com/N5Mp8Ible1
— @jason (@Jason) July 13, 2024
We contacted experts, analysts, and crypto fund managers to hear their opinions on Trump’s importance to the crypto industry.
Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain expert and author of ‘Blockchain Revolution 2030‘, told Techopedia:
“In my humble opinion, Donald Trump’s influence on the future of cryptocurrency is significant.
“His potential re-election could usher in a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, fostering innovation and growth in the sector.
“The recent events have only strengthened his position as a key figure for the crypto community, making his political fortunes closely tied to the future trajectory of digital currencies.”
Sergei Chmel, managing partner of alternative investment firm SeQuant Capital, acknowledged that Trump was “more favorable” for the crypto industry in comparison to current U.S. President Joe Biden.
However, Chmel added that the crypto industry had become too big for the White House resident to ignore at the end of the November 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
“Maybe Trump is a bit more favorable to crypto than Biden, but considering ETH ETF approval, it seems the Biden administration realizes how big the industry has become. They can’t undo it anymore.”.
Shiven Moodley, chief operating officer and macro strategist at brokerage firm 80eight Group, said Trump was “somewhat important” for the crypto industry in the US over the long-term.
Moodley added that Trump’s “free market ideology, promise of lower corporate taxes and crypto-friendly regulations could have “cascading effects.”
Is Trump a Genuine Crypto Supporter or Testing a Political Strategy?
Next, we asked crypto market experts what they thought of Trump’s sudden shift to pitch himself as the “Crypto President.”
After all, not so long ago, in July 2019, Trump tweeted that he was not a “fan of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” calling them “highly volatile,” “based on thin air” and “unregulated.”
Vijay Pravin, founder of AI-enabled decentralized blockchain data network bitsCrunch, shared his view with Techopedia:
“Trump’s viewpoint has obviously changed since he made disparaging remarks about crypto. Since that time frame, the crypto market has evolved substantially, with the long-awaited ETF approvals spurring on greater levels of institutional interest.”
Meanwhile, Lian pointed out three key reasons as to why Trump has had this change of heart:
- Progress on the crypto regulatory front
- Crypto’s growing political and economic influence
- Trump’s election strategy to differentiate himself from the Biden camp.
Lian added:
“Trump has shifted his position, likely recognizing the growing influence and voter base within the crypto community. This change of heart seems to be driven by the desire to capitalize on Biden’s regulatory approach, which has not been well-received by many crypto advocates.”
What Happens to Gary Gensler if Trump Gets Elected?
The U.S. SEC chairman Gary Gensler has been crypto’s arch-nemesis since President Biden took office in 2021.
From suing crypto exchanges and custodial wallet developers to repeatedly calling cryptocurrencies (other than Bitcoin) unregistered securities, Chair Gensler has done enough to provoke the ire of the crypto faithful.
The length of Gensler’s tenure as SEC chair will entirely depend on the U.S. Presidential election results, as the U.S. president has the power to select one of the five SEC commissioners to be the organization’s chairman.
According to Moodley, Gensler will likely be replaced as SEC chair for a “pro-blockchain technology individual” if Trump gets elected for his second term.
“That will lead to major blockchain developments coming from the US but will also shift the regulatory framework from backwards-thinking to forward-looking.”
Elsewhere, Jacob Martin, general partner of crypto venture capital firm 2Punks Capital, told Techopedia:
“A Republican win is likely a boon for crypto and American tech in general. I would assume a stock market rally to coincide.
“At the same time, a Democrat win with Biden as the nominee and a non-removal of Gary Gensler would be about the most bearish and confusing possible outcome for the next few years in crypto.”
What Will Happen to CBDCs Under Trump?
Next, we talk to industry experts about how CBDC development will take shape in the U.S. with Trump at the helm.
Trump’s anti-CBDC stance has been well-received by the crypto faithful. The former president shares community concerns related to privacy breaches and mass surveillance that many fear will arise with CBDC deployment.
In fact, Trump promised to “never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.”
President Trump: "Tonight, I am also making another promise to protect Americans from government tyranny. As your president, I will never allow the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency." pic.twitter.com/pg2z5M1VkO
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) January 18, 2024
But will Trump as president have the power to stop CBDC developments in the US?
Lian told Techopedia that Trump’s power to end the ongoing CBDC development program is limited by the independence of the Federal Reserve.
“The Federal Reserve, which is responsible for the development and potential implementation of a CBDC, operates independently of the executive branch. This means that while Trump could influence policy and public opinion, he would not have the direct authority to unilaterally halt the CBDC program.”
Meanwhile, Pravin took a cautious stance and said that halting the CBDC development project could “undermine America’s position as a dominant hub for crypto activity.”
“CBDCs are a significant pillar of the digital economy, and a range of nations have already explored the concept of CBDCs to modernize payment systems, enhance financial inclusion and strengthen monetary control.
“Halting CBDC development might discourage innovation and investment in the US crypto space, potentially causing large firms to set up operations in more crypto-friendly jurisdictions.”
The Bottom Line
The crypto industry is doubling down on Donald Trump. After the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, the chances of Trump winning the November 2024 U.S. Presidential election hit an all-time high of 71% on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket.
Since the attempt on his life, Trump has already confirmed that he will deliver a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference event scheduled to start on July 25, 2024, where he is sure to receive a hero’s welcome.
But, whatever happens in November 2024, this election campaign has showcased crypto’s newfound political relevance. Chmel, one of our expert panel members, summed it up:
“No matter who will be in charge, the genie is out of the bottle, and industry will grow rapidly from here.”
