When you buy through affiliate links in our content, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Learn Following a correction of below $2,000 per ounce in the middle of February, the price of gold rebounded in early March and surged to a fresh all-time high of $2,450.05 in May.
However, the gold price rally has stalled since then due to uncertainty about the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, after the US central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged in June’s meeting. A pause in gold purchases in May by China’s central bank, which had supported physical gold demand, added another headwind for the yellow metal.
On the other hand, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe continue to support gold prices, preventing further declines.
Gold price today, as of June 25, was at around $2,326 per ounce, about 5% lower than its May record high. It has gained nearly 13% so far this year.
Will gold extend its rally for the rest of the year? We examine key factors affecting the gold price prediction for 2024 and beyond and offer a long-term gold price forecast from leading market analysts.
Key Takeaways
- A robust central banks’ purchases have supported the price of gold in 2023 amid a high-rates environment.
- Analysts now expect the Fed to initiate one or two rate cuts starting in September.
- Strong physical demand from central banks and China is expected to support gold prices in the long term.
- The potential escalation of the US-China tension could increase China’s demand for gold.
Gold Price Forecast Summary
| Year | Forecast Range | Key Factors |
| 2024 | $2,000 – $2,399.62 oz |
|
| 2025 | $2,300 – $3,000/oz |
|
| 2026-2030 | $1,600 – $3,000
General sentiment: Upbeat trend |
Geopolitical tensions
Economic trends |
Gold Price Analysis: Surviving High Interest Rates in 2022-2023
Gold futures reached a record high of $2,069.40 on August 6, 2020, amid COVID-19 concerns, but then saw a decline from 2020 to 2022. In 2021, prices dropped about 3.5% after a 21% rise in 2020, as central banks, including the Fed, tightened monetary policies to combat inflation, boosting the US dollar and Treasury yields over non-yielding gold.
Despite aggressive interest rate hikes, gold limited its losses to 0.31% in 2022. In 2023, gold started strong at $1,835.8/oz and gained about 8% in the first quarter, driven by fears of a global recession due to continued rate hikes. It nearly reached its all-time high in April, at around $2,048.
The metal’s gains were initially limited due to factors like the Fed’s pause in rate hikes from July and talks of rate cuts, coupled with a rising US dollar. However, gold stabilized at around $1,900 and rallied in the last two months of 2023, ending the year with a 13.45% gain versus a 0.13% decline in 2022.
Let’s take a closer look at the key factors that sustained gold prices throughout 2023.
Central Banks Purchase Supports Gold Prices
Central banks have been actively filling up their pots of gold since last year amid escalating geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty. Gold demand from the central banks has become a key driver of gold in recent years, according to the World Gold Council.
In 2023, central bank demand reached 1,037 tons, falling 4% from a record of 1,082 tons in 2022, based on data provided by the World Gold Council (WGC). However, it marked the second consecutive year of buying 1,000 tons.
“The vast majority of purchases continued to come from emerging market central banks, many of whom have been regular buyers in recent years,” WGC said in the Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2023.
based. Source: Goldhub
ANZ Research analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari noted on February 20 that central banks have been diversifying away from sovereign bonds and opting for gold instead. This shift is due to aggressive monetary tightening, especially by the Federal Reserve, following the 2022 inflation shock.
The monetary tightening has strengthened the USD, leading to exchange rate fluctuations and lower bond prices due to higher yields. Consequently, other central banks suffered significant valuation losses on their foreign currency assets. ANZ Research estimates that around 50% of the decline in Asian central banks’ forex reserves in 2022 was due to valuation losses.
China’s return to the gold market to boost reserve has also contributed to the strong gold purchases of central banks. People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reclaimed its title as the single largest gold buyer in 2023,
accumulating a total of 225 tons over 2023, taking its total gold reserves to 2,235 tons, WGC data shows.
Lukman Leong, a commodity and foreign exchange analyst based in Jakarta, told Techopedia:
“The gold purchases by central banks, particularly by China, have sustained the gold price during the de-dollarization issue. I believe that China’s central bank will continue to buy gold.”
Strong central banks’ purchases have supported overall physical gold demand amid stable buying of jewelry and weak purchases for investment. Jewellery reached 2,092.6 tons in 2023, a little change from 2,088.9 tons in 2022, supported by China’s demand, according to data provided by WGC.
Investment demand fell 15% tons to a 10-year low at 945.1 tons in 2023 from 1,113 tons in 2022, according to WGC data.
Falling US Treasury Yields
The Fed’s signal of a rate cut in 2024 sent US Treasury yields to fall in the last two months of 2023, increasing appeal for the non-yielding gold.
On December 27, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 3.78%, the lowest since July 2023, as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would decrease interest rates in early 2024.
The note’s yield recovered its losses over January before dropping to its lowest levels for 2024 on February 1 at 3,86%, Trading Economic’s data shows.
However, the note’s yield has recovered, reaching a five-month high of 4.6% on April 11, as demand for safety amid heightened geopolitical tension outweighed the impact of hawkish expectations for the Fed. On June 24, the note’s yield eased to 4.26%.
Trading Economics expected the note’s yield to reach 4.47% in Q2 2024 and average at 4.39% in 12 months.
Geopolitical Tensions Provide a Boost
Fresh conflicts in the Middle East, which were triggered by Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, have undoubtedly given a further boost to gold prices. The new flare-up in the Gaza Strip, which has been ongoing for more than six months, has sparked concern that it may spread to the whole region.
Following the October 7 attack and subsequent Israeli offensive on Gaza, Hamas’ allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen, have launched retaliation actions against Israel and its allies.
Houthi, for example, have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, prompting shipping companies to take a longer and costly route via Africa.
Hezbollah has also traded cross-border fire with Israel in support of Hamas.
In October, gold gained 6.8%, supported by new tensions in the Middle East, according to WGC.
Drivers for the Gold Price in 2024
Before we dive into analysts’ forecasts, let’s take a look at factors that will affect the gold price outlook for 2024.
US Rate Cut Remains Key
The possibility of a US interest rate cut has been the main driver of gold since last year. While several G7 countries, have se in motion for a rate-cutting cycle, the Fed hasn’t budged so far.
Switzerland leads the rate-cutting move among developed nations, with two rate cuts in March and June, bringing down its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% from 1.75% in December 2023. Sweden, Canada, and the European Central Bank (ECB) have followed suit.
Meanwhile, the Fed has kept the Federal Funds Rate steady for seven consecutive meetings, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50% on June 12 meeting, citing solid economic growth.
ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari said in June 20 note:
“The easing in Europe has not been matched by the US. Fed officials have maintained a cautious approach until there are more concrete signs that inflation is on a sustainable trend lower. This may delay the pick-up in investor demand for commodities, with US rates being the predominant driver of global asset allocation.”
Following the Fed’s June meeting, analysts now only anticipate one or two rate cuts starting September. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to hold a meeting on 30-31 July.
BMI – a country and industry risk research company that is part of Fitch Solutions – believes that while the Fed would have room to start loosening monetary tightening, stronger May’s job data killed off the chance of a July rate cut.
The US job market has remained resilient despite the high interest rate environment. In May, the US added 272,000 new jobs, a surge from 165,000 in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on June 7, and beat analysts’ expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated payrolls advancing by 185,000.
BMI has revised its forecast for the Fed’s rate cut to 5.00% by year-end, compared to the previous estimate of 4.75%, reflecting the more cautious tone adopted by the policymakers.
“We think that the loosening cycle will kick off in September, consistent with market pricing (61.5% probability) following the release of May’s solid inflation data,” BMI noted, adding that the Fed will continue to cut at a steady pace through 2025, taking the
funds rate down to 3.00% by year-end.
ANZ Research forecasts that the Fed will implement two rate cuts in September and December, each by 25 basis points (bps), reducing the Federal Funds Rate to 5% by the end of 2024. The firm anticipates an additional 150 bps cut throughout 2025, aiming to bring the rate down to 3.50% by December 2025.
Hynes and Kumari wrote:
“With the current fed funds rate sitting at 5.5%, it’s unlikely we’ll see a 500bp cut. We are currently forecasting 200bp of cuts by the end of 2025. This would suggest a mild tailwind for commodity markets over the next couple of years.”
Central Bank Purchase to Remain Strong
Central banks are expected to continue accumulating gold to bolster their reserves amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions this year, despite a slowdown in purchases observed in March.
Net gold purchases by central banks rebounded to 33 tons in April, from a revised net 3 tons in March, World Gold Council (WGC) data shows released on June 3 as China has slowed purchases. China only added 2 tons to its gold reserves in April, down from 5 tons in March and 12 tons in February, according to WGC data.
According to the 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey by the World Gold Council (WGC), 29% of central bank respondents, out of 70 responses received in the survey, intend to increase their gold reserves in the next twelve months. This marks the highest level observed by the industry group since the survey began in 2018.
WGC wrote in the survey:
“The planned purchases are chiefly motivated by a desire to rebalance to a more preferred strategic level of gold holdings, domestic gold production, and financial market concerns including higher crisis risks and rising inflation.”
Central banks’ gold demand reached 289.7 tons in Q1 2024, up from 286.2 in the same quarter in 2023.
Uncertainty Over Geopolitical Tensions
Analysts expected geopolitical tensions, which are currently ongoing in the Middle East with the war between Israel and Hamas, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine, would continue well into 2024.
So far, there have been few signs the conflicts will abate anytime soon.
On May 26, an Israeli air strike on a camp for displaced people in the Gazan city of Rafah killed at least 45 people, drawing worldwide condemnation, including from the United States – Israel’s close ally. The attack has increased pressure on Israel and Hamas to reach a peaceful agreement.
On June 10, the United Nations passed a three-phase ceasefire plan in Gaza proposed by US President Joe Biden. However, so far, the fate of the agreement looks increasingly distant as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to eliminate the Palestinian Hamas movement. Netanyahu has even dismissed his war cabinet due to widened internal divisions, Reuters reported.
Ariston Tjendra, a Jakarta-based independent commodity analyst, told Techopedia in an interview on 12 April.
“All these tensions encourage players to find safe assets. Big institutions, mainly central banks, to buy physical gold.”
In addition to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, analysts anticipate persistent, if not escalating, tensions between the United States and China.
For several years, trade battles, spy accusations, China’s territorial claim in the South China Sea, and US backing for Taiwan, a democratically governed island that China claims as its territory, have strained relations between the world’s two largest economies.
The Biden administration has slapped a significant increase in tariffs on China-made products, including electric vehicles (EV), semiconductors, batteries, solar cells, steel, and aluminum, to protect US manufacturers and workers from “China’s unfair trade practices.” This move has the potential to exacerbate trade tensions between the two countries.
The upcoming US presidential election in November is likely to heighten tensions, especially if former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is re-elected. Trump has proposed increasing tariffs by 60% on all goods made in China.
ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari said on May 10:
“If the proposed 60% tariff is implemented, it may give another reason for the PBoC (People’s Bank of China) to further pare its US Treasury holdings. Any escalation in trade tensions will have several implications for the financial markets and the CNY. Therefore, geopolitical and economic uncertainties may make a compelling case for China to increase its official gold holdings in the longer run.”
China’s Gold Appetite to Support Demand
Despite high gold prices, China’s gold demand which accounts nearly 40% of global annual output in 2023, has been stronger-than-anticipated. Demand comes from all sectors, from investment, central bank and retail consumers.
“Increased household savings; subdued returns on alternative investment assets such as equities, bonds and real estate; property market crisis; uncertainty over yuan’s trajectory; and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) building up its gold reserve all these factors have supported demand for gold,” ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari said in a separate note on May 10.
While the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) paused its gold purchase in May after slowing it in February and March, China’s overall demand is expected to remain strong.
“A macro backdrop and high gold prices will likely slow imports in the coming months, but China’s macro backdrop and its geopolitical relationship with developed markets suggest that its gold demand will stay strong,” Hynes and Kumari wrote.
Gold Price Forecast 2024
| Analysts/Agency | Gold Price Forecast 2024 | |
| Previous
(April) |
Latest
(June) |
|
| ANZ Research | $2,243 | $2,301 |
| Lukman Leong | $2,500 | unchanged |
| Ibrahim Assuaibi (Laba Forexindo Berjangka) | $2,350-$2,400 | unchanged |
| Wahyu Laksono (Traderindo) | $2,000 – $2,350 | unchanged |
| ING | $2,200/oz | Q2:$2,300
Q3: $2,300 Q4: $2,350 |
| TD Securities | Q1: $2,050/oz
Q2: $2,175/oz Q3: $2,075/oz Q4: $2,000/oz |
Q2:$2,325
Q3:$2,350 Q4:$2,350 |
| Trading Economics | Q2: $2,273.85/oz
12 months estimate: $2,341.40 |
Q2: $2,350.99
Q3: $2,375.19 Q4: $2,399.62 |
| Fitch Ratings | $1,900 | $2,000 |
Taking into account all the drivers, most analysts have revised their gold price forecast 2024, predicting the yellow metal stay above the $2,000 level.
ANZ Research, in its gold forecast 2024 on June 20, expected the precious metal to trade at an average of $2,301/oz, up from a previous forecast of $2,243/oz in April and also higher from the estimated $1,926 in 2023.
ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari, in the note on May 10, said they maintain a positive view for gold, expecting the yellow metal to trade at $2,500/oz by the end of 2024. They wrote:
“Heightened geopolitical tension, economic growth risk, renewed inflation and currency volatility will hold sway on gold demand until the US Fed commences policy easing.”
Leong also revised its gold rate prediction for 2024 to $2,500 from his previous estimate of between $2,200 to $2,300 in February.
Leong told Techopedia in a phone interview on April 12:
“There are no changes in fundamentals. It’s classic reasons, central banks purchase, particularly the latest data shows that China continues to buy gold. The Fed’s rate cut is still uncertain, but investors believe it’s just a matter of timing.”
Assuaibi of Laba Forexindo Berjangka saw gold price to trade higher at $2,350 to $2,400/oz in 2024, compared to his previous forecast at $1,830 to $2,100/oz on the back of the Fed’s rate cut in the second half and continuing conflicts in the Middle East as well as in Europe.
Laksono of Traderindo also lifted his gold forecast 2024 to $2,000 and $2,350/oz from a forecasted $1,900 and $2,250 in February.
“The possibility of Fed rate cuts is still fluctuating and remains a debate at the time,” he said.
Dutch bank ING, in its updated gold forecast on June 13, expected gold price to steady at $2,300/oz in Q2 and Q3 before rising to $2,350/oz in the final quarter of 2024. On average, gold was expected to trade at $2,255 for 2024.
Ewa Manthey, ING Commodity Strategist, said on June 10:
“If the Fed continues its cautious approach to easing, gold prices risk a pullback. We expect gold prices to remain volatile in the coming months as the market reacts to macro drivers, tracking geopolitical events and Fed rate policy.”
In the latest gold price forecast in June 2024, TD Securities predicted gold prices reach $2,325/oz in Q2 2024, rising to $2,350 in Q3 and stay at that price level until Q4.
“All said, gold prices should remain strong as speculators continue to anticipate the start to the Fed cutting cycle,” the firm said in a note on May 16.
Meanwhile, economic data provider Trading Economics saw gold prices continue rising over 2024, as of June 25. Gold was expected to trade at $2,350.99/oz in Q2, rising to $2,375.19 in Q3 and $2,399.62 in the final quarter of 2024, at the time of writing.
Fitch Ratings has revised up its gold price forecast for 2024 to $2,000/oz from its previous estimate of $1,900/oz.
Gold Price Forecast 2025
| Analysts/Agency | Gold Price Forecast 2025 | |
| Previous
April |
Latest
June |
|
| ANZ Research | $2,493 | $2,593 |
| Lukman Leong | $3,000 | Unchanged |
| Ibrahim Assuaibi (Laba Forexindo Berjangka) | $2,200 | Unchanged |
| Wahyu Laksono (Traderindo) | $2,300 -$2,500 | Unchanged |
| ING | $2,310/oz | $2,300 |
| TD Economics | Q1 to Q4: $2.000 | Q1: $2,350
Q2: $2,325 Q3:$2,275 Q4:$2,175 |
| Trading Economics | Q1: $2,341.40 | Q1:$2,424.29 |
| Fitch Ratings | $1,800 (March) | $1,900 |
Analysts have mixed projections for the gold price in 2025; nevertheless, they generally remain upbeat about gold price predictions for the same year.
Lukman Leong predicted that gold could trade at $3,000 or more on robust physical demand, particularly from China.
Leong told Techopedia:
“We know that gold demand in physical markets is very high. Whatever is being produced is sold out and taken mostly by China’s central bank. China’s gold reserve is still less than 10% of its total foreign exchange reserve. It will take a long time for the country to build up its gold reserve to 10% (of its total foreign exchange reserve).”
Traderindo’s analyst Wahyu Laksono expected the metal could trade in a higher range of $2,300 to $2,500/oz in 2025, up from $2,300 to $2,400 in his earlier forecast in February.
“Gold is in consolidation phase potentially to form a base before the next bullish [ride],” said Laksono.
ANZ Research’s gold price forecast for 2025 on June 20, saw the yellow metal average at $2,593, an upward revision from $2,493/oz estimated in April.
Trading Economics is upbeat on the gold price predictions, expecting the price to rise to $2,424.29 in the first quarter of 2025
On the other hand, Laba Forexindo Berjangka’s Director Ibrahim Assuaibi has a different opinion on the gold price forecast 2025. He projected that gold prices could soften in 2025 at $2,100/oz as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe are projected to ease.
However, Assuaibi’s latest gold price forecast for 2025 was up from February’s estimate of $1,750 to $2,000/oz.
ING revised its June’s gold price forecast 2025 to $2,300/oz, down from the previous estimate of an average $2,310/oz in 2025. Fitch Ratings also predicted gold price to fall to $1,900 in 2025, but it was an upward revision from $1,800/oz in the previous forecast.
Reflecting similar downside risks, TD Economics’ latest forecast on June 20, projected gold price to further decline through 2025. Gold price is anticipated to steady at $2,350/oz in Q1 2025, before continue dropping to $2,175/oz in the final quarter of 2025.
Gold Price Predictions for the Next 5 Yearsё
| Analyst | Gold Price Forecast for the Next 5 Years |
| Wahyu Laksono | $2,550 – $3,000/oz |
| Lukman Leong | $3,000/oz |
| Ibrahim Assuaibi | $2,200/oz |
| ING | 2026: $2,240 |
| Fitch Ratings | 2026: $1,700
2027: $1,600 |
Few analysts provided gold price predictions for the next 5 years as drivers to gold prices are more difficult to predict due to their volatility and complexity. However, they maintain a bullish outlook on the price of gold for the long term.
In 2026, ING expected the gold price to ease slightly to $2,240/oz, from a projected $2,300 in 2025.
Looking ahead, Fitch Ratings’ June 18 gold price forecast saw the metal to trade lower at $1,700 in 2026, but it was up from its previous projection of $1,600 in March. Gold is likely to continue its downward trajectory in 2027, trading at $1,600/oz.
The rating agency did not provide gold price forecast for 2030. However, it estimated the gold price mid-cycle to be $1,500/oz.
Traderindo’s Laksono has maintained its forecast that gold could trade at between $2,550 to $3,000/oz. He said:
“Many things could happen in five years, including global economic crises. So being bullish [about gold] is rational.”
Lukman Leong shared Laksono’s optimistic gold price outlook for the next five years and projected that a gold price of $3,000 could be achievable within the time frame. He said:
“Short-term factors, such as de-dollarization, geopolitical concerns, and China demand will continue in the long term.”
Sources did not provide gold price predictions for the next 10 years because of the substantial uncertainty associated with forecasting such a lengthy period of time.
Ariston Tjendra, a Jakarta-based independent commodity analyst, has stated that the long-term trajectory of the gold rate will depend on the extent of correction that the metal experiences in the coming years.
Tjendra told Techopedia in a phone interview on April 12:
“Gold could either maintain its high range or re-enter the mid-range. However, the geopolitical situation has not shown any signs of improvement, and global economic growth is slowing in the post-COVID pandemic era. Several countries are grappling with debts and inflation. As long as inflation remains a challenge for countries, gold will continue to be attractive.”
Is Gold a Good Buy Today?
Since ancient times, gold has been the go-to investment for protection in times of uncertainty, whether economic hardship or security turmoil. Gold prices, like many other commodities, will always fluctuate.
Most of the analysts cited for this article predicted that gold prices would rise further in the following years.
According to Trading Economic data, while gold prices fluctuate like other commodities, they have been steadily rising over the last ten years.
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The Bottom Line
Gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2024, with the prospect of reaching new highs in the second half of 2024 as central banks ease monetary policy and geopolitical tensions escalate.
Geopolitical uncertainties may be the primary driver of gold in the longer term beyond 2025.
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- FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Takes Action to Strengthen American Solar Manufacturing and Protect Manufacturers and Workers from China’s Unfair Trade Practices | The White House (Whitehouse)
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(Economics.td) - TD Economics – Commodity Price Report: Stable Amidst Risks
(Economics.td) - Commodity…gold Forecast 2024/2025
(Tradingeconomics) - Fitch Ratings Expands and Updates Global Metals and Mining Price Assumptions (Fitchratings)
