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Alternate passing yards is the simple adjustment a sportsbook’s passing yards total to suit your own predictions or risk appetite.
Many bettors of all experience levels are familiar with the concept of totals in terms of prop betting.
It’s simple enough to deduce that if a player throws, runs or receives more or less than a certain number of yards the bettor will win if they predict the over/under correctly.
Alternate yard totals exist for when you want to adjust the totals set by a sportsbook for these prop bets.
If you’re unfamiliar with the practice of alternate yards, especially alternate passing yards, here’s a crash course on what they are and how best to bet them.
What Are Alternate Passing Yards?
Every online sportsbook will produce a passing-yards prop wager for the quarterbacks in NFL and college football games every week of the season.
The numbers and odds are dependent on the quarterback’s abilities and other factors like their opponent, but typically passing-yards props carry odds that vary from -130 to +100.
With alternate passing yards, the premise is just as it says. You get to change that line to an ‘alternate’ number to suit your predictions or rick appetite.
Is Alt Passing Yards a Good Bet?
Yes. Mainly because of it’s versatility. There are two key reasons you might like to make an alternate passing yards bet.
To Increase Profit When You’re Confident
If a quarterback’s passing yards line is over/under 304.5 yards, and you don’t think he will throw for that many yards, you can choose a lower, pre-picked number with better corresponding odds.
For example, instead of taking the under 304.5 and accepting odds of -110, you can reduce the line to 274.5 (for example) and take the under at better odds, likely around +130.
Obviously, this comes with risks, if the QB throws for 285 yards your new bet will lose but the original under 304 bet would have won.
Conversely, if you think he’ll sling it around against the a porous pass defense and throw for a lot more than 304 yards, some offshore sportsbooks let you push the line out to a bigger number to boost your overs odds.
To Reduce Risk When You’re Building a Parlay
If you’re building a same-game parlay, you’ll want to make it more likely to hit.
That means if you’re loading up a three or four-leg parlay and want to make it more favorable, you can take a QB’s alternate passing yards prop from the previous examples at over 250 at -200 or over 275 at -170.
By taking an alternate number, that leg becomes more likely to hit and less likely to sink your entire multi-leg bet. This obviously means you take a hit to your odds, that’s the tradeoff.
Be careful when considering which alternate passing yards props to consider because even though an alternate total seems likely, and the odds are very short, those props can fall short.
When Alt Passing Yards is a Bad Bet
Injuries can wreck even the most conservative alt passing yards bet.
For example, if you took Aaron Rodgers’ lower alternate passing total in New York’s 2023 season opener, it would have fallen well short since he only lasted four snaps. A nightmare scenario.
There are other instances where alt-passing props may not be a good wager, especially since sportsbooks will often list a floor of about 75 yards fewer than the listed number.
For instance, if a QB’s passing prop is 304.5, then NFL sportsbooks typically won’t let you wager the alt total less than about 225 at odds of about -400, even though it’s entirely possible they finish with 212 yards.
Like all wagers there are risks, and it’s hard to recommend alternate passing-yards props as a standalone wager unless you’re confident and pushing the line to make your odds bigger.
Generally speaking, though, when used for the right reasons and the right bets, alt passing yards is a good play.
Alternate Passing Yards Pros & Cons
Pros 
- Can target a prop bet that is more likely to hit
- Makes a great parlay leg
- Good way to reduce risk when you’re feeling less confident
Cons 
- Inferior odds makes it less lucrative as a standalone wager
- Most sportsbooks have an alt-passing yards floor of about 75 yards less than main prop
- Like any bet, it’s still not guaranteed to hit even with short odds
Tips For Alternate Passing Yards Betting
Here are some tips to consider before choosing an alternate passing yards prop bet.
- Do your homework. Will you face a situation where a player goes off against a certain opponent, a la Kyler Murray vs the Cowboys? Is the player you’re targeting going up against a team that has a porous pass defense or is ravaged by injuries? The more information you have, the better you’ll feel about placing your wager.
- Consider the weather/game plan too. If a Jets vs Bills game is being played in December in Western New York, New York would be more likely to go with a heavy run game script based on the inevitable snow, wind, frigid temps. Rodgers could, and has in his Green Bay days, handed the ball off 30 times, and taking an Over alt-passing prop even as low as 225 is probably a bad bet in that scenario.
- Develop a narrative. By the same token, passing-yard props are best hit when the player you’re hoping to wager is playing from behind. Rodgers won’t throw the ball at all in the second half if the Jets are up 17 points, which means even an alternate passing yards prop would be in jeopardy. But he could go for 400-plus yards if New York is playing from behind.
- Trust your gut. We all can get analysis paralysis when dialing up an SGP. But the wagers we love are typically the ones we’ll be OK losing with. If you loved a particular leg but didn’t have the gall to wager it then you’ll kick yourself for years. Check in with yourself and go with what you are confident in, and you’ll have a better chance of winning.
References
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